国际货代海运公司谈航运价格上涨的五大原因

　　当前，天津货代公司称航运成本大幅上涨，激烈的海运能力竞争成为新常态。由于新运力仅缓慢投产，预计今年运价将继续创下新高，并在长期内保持在疫情前的水平之上。

　　Currently,shipping costs are rising sharply and intense competition for ocean freight capacity is the new normal.With new capacity only slowly coming on stream,shipping rates are expected to continue to hit new highs this year and remain above pre-epidemic levels in the long term.

　　短期无缓解

　　No short-term relief

　　自2020年秋季以来，海运成本一直在强劲增长，但今年头几个月，主要贸易路线上不同运价（干散货、集装箱）的价格出现了新的上涨。与去年相比，几条贸易航线的价格上涨了两倍，集装箱船的租船价格也出现了类似的上涨。

　　Ocean freight costs have been growing strongly since the fall of 2020,but the first months of this year have seen new price increases on the major trade routes at different rates(dry bulk,container).Several trade routes have seen prices triple compared to last year,and container vessels have seen similar increases in charter rates.

　　短期内几乎没有缓解的迹象，由于全球需求的增长将继续满足运力增长有限以及当地封锁的破坏性影响，今年下半年运价可能会继续飙升。即使有新的运力到达，集装箱班轮公司也可能会继续更加积极地管理运力，从而将运费保持在比新冠病毒大流行之前更高的水平。

　　There is little sign of relief in the short term and rates are likely to continue to soar later this year as global demand growth will continue to meet limited capacity growth and the damaging effects of local blockades.Even with new capacity arrivals,container liner companies are likely to continue to manage capacity more aggressively,thereby keeping freight rates higher than they were prior to the new coronavirus pandemic.

　　1、持续的全球失衡进一步推高价格

　　1-Continuing global imbalances further push up prices

　　从新冠病毒大流行开始就积累起来的问题包括货物生产和需求不平衡，各国封锁和开放时间不同，以及航运公司削减主要航线的运力和空箱短缺。随着经济复苏的推进，全球需求强劲复苏，尤其是与国际货物贸易关系最密切的部门。随着经济的进一步开放和供应链多个环节的库存重建，对海运能力的竞争加剧。

　　Problems that have built up since the beginning of the New Coronavirus pandemic include imbalances in cargo production and demand,differing blockades and opening times across countries,and capacity cuts and shortages of empty containers by shipping lines on major routes.As the economic recovery advances,global demand is recovering strongly,especially in the sectors most closely associated with international cargo trade.Competition for ocean freight capacity intensifies as the economy opens up further and inventories are rebuilt at multiple points in the supply chain.

　　2、海运的替代方案少

　　2-Few alternatives to maritime transport

　　缺乏海运替代品意味着目前很难避免海运成本飙升。对于价值更高的产品，通常可以选择其他运输方式，例如通过航空或火车运输电子设备，尤其是通过“丝绸之路”。但目前产能有限，关税也飙升。家庭用品、玩具、促销品或T恤等低价值产品的托运人的运费成本从其采购成本的5%左右增加到20%以上。

　　The lack of sea freight alternatives means that it is currently difficult to avoid soaring sea freight costs.For higher value products,there are often alternatives to shipping,such as shipping electronic equipment by air or train,especially via the Silk Road.But capacity is currently limited and tariffs have soared.Shippers of low-value products such as housewares,toys,promotional items or T-shirts have seen freight costs increase from about 5%to over 20%of their purchase cost.

　　难以消化这种规模的利润增长，这意味着消费者可能会开始感受到价格上涨或产品供应变化带来的影响。

　　The difficulty of absorbing profit increases of this magnitude means that consumers may begin to feel the impact of higher prices or changes in product availability.

　　3、整个2021年的不平衡复苏

　　3-Uneven recovery throughout 2021

　　货物贸易将进一步增长，不仅主要贸易国，而且其贸易伙伴也将继续复苏。随着对海运能力的竞争将继续存在，不平衡的复苏将继续加剧世界贸易的一些问题，包括空箱转移。这一切都在短期内增加了运费的压力。

　　Trade in goods will grow further,and recovery will continue not only for the major trading nations but also for their trading partners.With competition for maritime capacity set to continue,the uneven recovery will continue to exacerbate some of the problems of world trade,including the shifting of empty containers.All of this adds to the pressure on freight rates in the short term.

　　4、船舶空白航行缩紧运力

　　4-Vessel gap sailing tightens capacity

　　在全球范围内，主要航线的运力已恢复到2020年主要封锁之前的水平，尽管空白航行（取消的港口停靠）在第一季度继续削减了预定运力的10%。本季度有改善的迹象，按照目前的计划平均为4%。但取消部分是对延误的回应，因此虽然系统仍然拥挤，但运输能力可能会在短时间内继续从系统中取出。

　　Globally,capacity on major routes has returned to pre-2020 major blockade levels,although blanket voyages(cancelled port calls)continued to cut 10%of scheduled capacity in the first quarter.There were signs of improvement during the quarter,averaging 4%as currently scheduled.However,the cancellations are partly in response to delays,so while the system remains congested,capacity is likely to continue to be taken out of the system for a short period of time.

　　5、港口拥堵和关闭不断

　　5-Port congestion and closures continue

　　正如取消航班和延误之间的联系所表明的那样，拥堵是问题的一部分。2021年的航运表现延续了2020年的表现，因为船舶准时率降低，船舶到港平均延误率上升。有一些迹象表明，随着准时到达目的地的船舶比例在4月份停止下滑，平均延误情况有所改善，平均绩效将开始改善，但整体表现仍然是十年来的最低记录。

　　As the link between cancellations and delays suggests,congestion is part of the problem.2021 shipping performance continues from 2020,as ship on-time performance decreases and average ship arrival delays increase.There are some indications that average performance will begin to improve as the proportion of ships arriving on time at their destination stops declining in April and average delays improve,but overall performance remains the lowest recorded in a decade.

　　准时到达的船舶比例

　　Proportion of ships arriving on time

　　与此同时，新冠病毒大流行仍在导致中断，例如中国盐田集装箱港——世界第四大集装箱港口——在6月初突然关闭。即使运营已经恢复，拥堵和持续需要采取措施阻止Covid-19的传播意味着延误继续增加。尽管中国和其他主要贸易国家在疫苗接种计划方面取得了进展，但产生免疫力需要时间，因此在未来几个月内，处理中断仍将是一个风险。

　　Meanwhile,the New Coronavirus pandemic is still causing disruptions,such as the abrupt closure of China's Yantian Container Port-the world's fourth largest container port-in early June.Even though operations have resumed,congestion and the ongoing need to take measures to stop the spread of Covid-19 mean that delays continue to increase.Despite progress in vaccination programs in China and other major trading countries,it will take time to develop immunity,so handling disruptions will remain a risk for months to come.

　　大量新集装箱运力将缓解价格压力，但不会在2023年之前

　　Significant new container capacity will ease price pressure,but not before 2023

　　集装箱班轮在疫情期间取得了出色的财务业绩，在2021年前5个月，集装箱船的新订单达到创纪录的229艘，总货运能力为220万标准箱。到2023年，当新运力准备好投入使用时，经过多年的低交付量后，它将增加6%，预计旧船的报废不会抵消这一点。随着全球经济增长越过复苏的追赶阶段，即将到来的海运运力增加将对航运成本构成下行压力，但不一定会使运费恢复到新冠病毒大流行前的水平，因为集装箱班轮似乎已经学会了在他们的联盟中更好地管理运力能力。

　　Container liners have delivered excellent financial results during the epidemic,with a record 229 new orders for container ships in the first five months of 2021,for a total cargo capacity of 2.2 million TEUs.By 2023,when new capacity is ready to enter service,it will have increased by 6%after years of low deliveries,which is not expected to be offset by the scrapping of older vessels.As global growth crosses the catch-up phase of the recovery,the upcoming increase in ocean freight capacity will put downward pressure on shipping costs,but will not necessarily return freight rates to pre-new coronavirus pandemic levels,as container liners appear to have learned to better manage capacity capacity in their alliances.

　　在短期内，由于需求的进一步增加和拥挤的系统的限制，运价可能会创下新高。即使运力限制得到缓解，运费也可能保持在比新冠病毒大流行之前更高的水平上。

　　In the near term,freight rates could reach new highs due to further increases in demand and the constraints of a congested system.Even if capacity constraints are eased,freight rates are likely to remain at higher levels than before the new